TO LIVE OR TO DIE

There are so many ingredients in the stew that is the upcoming (Jan. 25) Palestinian election that one would need a very large pot for them to simmer in. First of all, there will be an election with real candidates and clear and different agendas for the public to analyze. This in itself makes it something to behold, an Arab election that has concrete policy ramifications rather than the cosmetic Saudi- or Baathist-style hall-of-mirrors approach. Voters in the West Bank and Gaza and perhaps East Jerusalem can choose between a corrupt secular remnant of a failed liberation terrorist group devoted to its neighbor’s destruction or a mullah-based, music-less, chador-clad, theologically pure Sharia law party… devoted to its neighbor’s destruction.

And, what do some of the Israelis want to do? Call it off. They have now seen the results of their handiwork, decades of U.S. and Israeli backing of Fatah, a corrupt secular remnant of a failed liberation terrorist group making thousands of excuses for its policy of blowing up pizza parlors and beachfront discos and denying any real effective government to the Palestinian people. Now Hamas, a fundamentalist religious force which was used by the very selfsame corrupt group as a cover and wants even more bloodshed and hatred, has dared to turn on its protector, and Condi and the Israelis are surprised?

The deeper question, however, is how democratic can an election be? Can a people vote to destroy itself? Do democracy and the right to elect a war cabinet automatically translate into censorship and threats by the U.S. state department? The Taliban conquered Afghanistan by force and imposed a brutal theocracy on its people. But what if they had held a free and fair election and voted in Mullah Omar by a huge margin? Of course, if he had backed and given sanctuary to Bin Laden, then after 9/11 it would have made little difference to our invasion plans. The situation is analogous to the imminent Palestinian election.

If the Palestinians vote in Hamas they will have made a statement. Beyond expressing satisfaction with the services delivered and dissatisfaction with Fatah’s economic policies, they will have said they want to continue the resistance, which according to their own statements means suicide bombers in Tel Aviv and everywhere Israelis take a bus. Clearly the Hamas propaganda team has tied the unilateral Gaza withdrawal to the success of the resistance and the targeting of civilians to increase the pain on its enemies. Israeli spokesmen quoted in The New York Times have spoken of a possible “third intifada” if Hamas becomes the political winner. There is, however, another much more deadly scenario. A second “Al Nakba” is possible. Loosely translated as “the tragedy,” it commemorates the founding of the state of Israel and the loss of Arab lands. It is remembered the same way that the Israelis remember the Holocaust.

Envision the future of a Hamas administration. No more begging to “crack down” on terrorists by the Israeli, American and E.U. politicians. The crackees will be in charge. No more pretend embarrassment at the Palestinians dancing in the streets after bodies of Israeli women and children are carried from Passover dinners. Candies and sweets will be served at every mosque after the charred bodies are counted from the latest “martyrdom operation.” And this will be the result of a freely elected Palestinian government.

What will be the Israeli response? What would any sovereign nation do in response to a war-making government next door? Imagine a West Bank war zone with ten times the level of conflict. Imagine ten times the checkpoints and roadblocks, house searches, assassinations, and curfews. With the P.L.O. on the sidelines, Hamas and Shin Bet will have a clear field of fire at each other. It is conceivable that Hezbollah and Al Qaeda will attempt to help Hamas, and they will be welcomed as partners in the resistance. There will be hundreds of cases like Mohammed al-Dura, the Palestinian child killed by crossfire early in the second intifada. No amount of sacrifice by the Palestinian people will be too much, according to Hamas, for the reclamation of the Wafa lands.

Jordan and Egypt, get ready. As the 1948 war showed, refugees will flee a danger zone if their leaders will not compromise. And as the second intifada has shown, Israel will fight its wars on the territory of its foe rather than on the streets of Haifa. As the U.N. partition was ignored and defied by the Arab nations then, Hamas has shown it has learned nothing since. If the already marginally livable, poverty stricken and lawless West Bank and Gaza become a true battlefield we will see pictures exactly like those we did in 1948 of families loaded up with their household goods streaming from the front. Will Egypt and Jordan turn them away? Hamas, with its apocalyptic vision, may think victory will come from this cataclysm. It’s in all their statements and leadership pronouncements. It’s also possible that Jordan and Egypt will reclaim their lands rather than have a new wave of refugees or lawless neighbors. One could easily see the U.N. grant them a temporary “mandate” to stop the chaos.

There is little anyone locally can do to derail this train. What would be needed is for the Quartet to impose on the Israelis and the Palestinians a final border solution. Both sides would have to howl in pain at the unfair, arbitrary and disadvantaged treatment they received at the big powers’ ruling. However, if they granted a final global legitimization to any solution and backed it up with security measures and political pressure it might work. Many years ago there was an interview with a now-assassinated top Hamas leader who envisioned the same thing. When asked if he seriously thought Hamas could defeat the Israelis he said no, but perhaps they could bring in the world on the Palestinian side to give them a state and end the occupation. Oddly, Hamas may succeed in this, but when you bring on a war unforeseen events happen, and it’s just as possible that Palestine will disappear and Israel will have closer borders with two nations with which it has intact peace treaties.