Worldwide Java Jag: 2009-10-25

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

What If

One of the consistent joys of reading history is the amount of diplomacy that took place out of the public eye. For every Hitler/Stalin non-aggression pack publicly announced, a dozen equally profound events occurred and remained only known to a few. Take the British Project "Ultra" that cracked the German messaging code. Using the Enigma machine the British learned of the German high command's war plans down to the number of troops assigned to a frontal attack. Had it been announced, the Nazi's would have changed their strategy completely. Keeping it quiet created a game changing advantage. Hundreds of thousands of men fought in battles whose outcomes were predetermined and tens of millions of newspaper readers saw bulletins and analysis as though the news were truly fresh.

We may be witnessing a similar situation with Iran and its quest for nuclear weapons today. In fact it is possible that all the negotiating going on in Geneva is a show for domestic consumption in Iran and the West.

How plausible is it that more is happening than meets the eye? To let you judge let's consider a series of hypothetical “what if’s” and see if they help make sense of otherwise puzzling current events. Try these on:

-What if the announcement of the secret second enrichment facility near Qom was only one of several that are known to Western Intelligence? That satellite imagery and conventional intelligence has given the NATO nations the entire picture of the Iranian nuclear effort?

-What if the Iranians knew that NATO had this complete picture and had to internally acknowledge that their efforts at concealment and secrecy were for naught?

-What if we take all the leaders of Germany, Britain, France, America and Israel at their word that an Iranian nuclear weapon will not happen? What if the Iranians know this to be true and believe it?

-What if they have seen the war plans themselves and acknowledged that they are defenseless against them? That NATO or any combination of Western allies could destroy their facilities or set them back a decade?

-What if the AWAC plane that was their only defense against an attack did not crash innocently at the military air show last month, but was brought down by an Israeli satellite using sophisticated electronic jamming techniques?

-What if the Russians decided not to ship the S-300 series antiaircraft missiles to Teheran not because, as announced, the Saudis bought the more advanced S-400 Triumf series on the condition that they cancel the Iranian one? Instead, it was because the delivery was cancelled by the Iranians due to the fact that the system had already been penetrated and sabotaged by NATO/Israeli intelligence and thus, rendered useless to Iran?

-What if the recent cozying up to Iran by Russia and China is not a break in the Security Council alliance against Iran, but a face saving show of independence because they know Iran will not build an operational bomb?

-What if NATO and Israeli policy makers have already reached an agreement with Iran not to build a nuclear bomb, but are allowing the Mullahs to put on a display of defiance and negotiating prowess?

-What if the stream of statements out of Iran about how useless and un-Islamic nuclear weapons are, is in response to this agreement and thus a super face-saver?